EpiMAN-SF: a decision-support system for managing swine fever epidemics.

During an outbreak of classical swine fever (hog cholera) or African swine fever, decisions in emergency headquarters have to be made under conditions of time pressure, limited resources and uncertainty. The computer program EpiMAN-SF is designed to support decision-making in this situation by providing up-to-date information and a structured approach to choosing from among competing tasks by combining electronic data management with expert system components. EpiMAN-SF provides accurate and timely summaries of the epidemic, using both text and graphics. In addition, the program provides tools for the epidemiological analysis and forecasting of the emergency, and for assessing current and alternative control strategies. The expert system and simulation models integrated in EpiMAN-SF have been evaluated using sensitivity analysis, historic outbreak data and expert opinion. The results demonstrate that EpiMAN-SF is a valid alternative to traditional data management during exotic disease epidemics.